Analysts of Credit Suisse bank believe that in the next 10 years the Russian economy will grow by more than 60 per cent. They base their forecast on the Russian abundant natural resources, the active development of its energy infrastructure, as well as on the country's strong scientific and technological base in certain industrial sectors.
We foresee a bright future for the Russian economy, and we forecast an increase of 3,6 per cent in the country's GDP in 2010, 4,9 per cent in 2011 and of 4,6 per cent in 2012, said the Credit Suisse bank analysts. They believe that the Russian economy will thereafter be growing by 5 per cent annually and they believe that the major reason for the increase in the Russian economy is due to the well developed oil sector, which is still developing steadily. Head of the Russian Academy of Sciences' institute of economy's center for comparative study of transitional processes, Leonid Bardomsky has this to say about the forecast of the Swiss analysts:
"The Swiss analysts have made a conservative forecast, taking into account that in the last decade the Russian GDP has doubled. The experts have cautiously predicted an increase of 60 per cent, in view of the fluctuation of oil prices on the global market, where there is the expectation of an increase of 60 per cent which is normal for the sector. Income from oil can guarantee the mentioned 60 per cent increase, but reaching 100 per cent will require the development of nanotechnology", said Bardomsky. He believes that the Swiss bank has no trust in this and hence its conservative forecast is based on global extraneous developments.
Russia should diversify its economy and not rely solely on oil and gas if it wants to achieve a significant breakthrough; it should continue to keep the ruble weak in relation to other world currencies, to get the best from, the export of its raw materials. The Managing Director of the Department of Global markets of The New York-Mellon Bank, Michael Wolfork, says that in the first half of the New Year, prices of the Russian raw materials will increase as a result of high demands, and it will come about due to the lower exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar. European countries, the U.S and Japan will be buying more Russian goods if the ruble remains weak, said Wolfork.
Leonid Bardomsky shares the opinion of Wolfork, saying that the world wants Russia to have a strong economy, to bring benefits not only to Russians, but also to the rest of the world. If the potential of the Russian economy increases, the economies of the rest of the world will likewise be boosted, said Bardomsky. Financial experts believe that by 2030, the Russian economy will become the strongest in Europe, and this view is backed by experts of Price Water House Cooper in a report circulated in the City of London, the financial center of Britain. It is believed by experts that by 2030, the Russian economy will become the 5th strongest in the world.
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