Voting has begun in the runoff presidential election in Ukraine with the first-round winner, leader of the opposition Party of Regions Viktor Yanukovych facing a tough challenge from the current Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko who finished second in the first round but still quite far behind. The two were 10% apart.
The presidential marathon that has lasted several months is coming to a close. More 30,000 polling stations, about a hundred of them outside Ukraine, opened at 8 in the morning. The first to cast their ballots were Ukrainian voters in Australia and far-eastern Russia, and those in San Francisco will be the last to vote.
Both candidates for the presidency are mature politicians. Yanukovych ran neck-and-neck with the outgoing head of state Viktor Yushchenko in the 2004 runoff followed by the "Orange Revolution" and a third round won by Yushchenko. Tymoshenko has been among the country's top figures for years, although this is her first presidential bid. A simple majority will decide which of the two will become president. If they win an equal number of votes, which is the likeliest to happen, a new election may be called.
While the first round was fairly predictable, most analysts are now very cautious in their forecasts as much will depend on those 13% of voters who supported banker Serhiy Tyhypko in the first round. The turnout is expected to be higher than in January. Opinion polls show the majority of Ukrainians have already made their choice. At the same time, the number of the "against-all" voters may sharply increase. With both candidates seeing themselves as winners and accusing each other of potential fraud-plotting, a victory by a low margin may take confrontation to the streets. Most analysts agree, however, that protests will be of a far lesser scale than in 2004. A Ukrainian politologist, Andrei Yermolayev, says a new "maidan" is unlikely.
"Voters are highly critical of the government and will not support moves to preserve it. Rather, a "maidan" will be a kind of imitation for television, with party activists and pre-mobilized supporters". The official voting results will be announced on February 17.
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