Russian ruble ranks third among the currencies, which have demonstrated the highest growth against the dollar. It has obtained such an honorary position among the currencies of the G20 states on the results of last month. In the former months the Russian ruble remained one of the most stable currencies while the other currencies were subjected to ups and downs.
Only the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso grew up somewhat and were higher than the ruble last month. However, in January this year the real dropped considerably against the U.S. dollar. The South African rand, the euro and the British Pound have sustained even heavier losses since the beginning of this year. The euro is the second in significance reserve currency after the dollar. However, the euro-zone is facing serious problems at the moment in view of a sharp weakening of the solvency of Greece. The investors are fearful that Greece will face a new default and that its debt crisis will spread to the other countries of the euro-zone. In such a situation a sufficiently stable exchange-rate of the ruble may add more positive dynamism to the Russian economy, the director of the Analytical Information Department of the RosBusinessConsulting Agency Alexander Yakovlev said in an interview for the Voice of Russia:
"The investors have not lost yet their interest in the lucrative accounts with a high degree of risk, including, among other things the Russian bonds. Many experts say that in the BRIC segment, including Brazil, Russia, India, and China, Russia seems to be the most attractive for investments today. This influences the tendencies of the inflow of foreign capital, producing a positive influence on both the dynamism of the market of shares and the ruble".
Today the Russian monetary unit is solid enough, in the first place, due to high oil prices. But there's always a risk that they will go down, which is fraught with unfavourable consequences, including such as the outflow of capital, Alexander Yakovlev says:
"If oil drops below 70 dollars a barrel, investors will assess this as a negative signal for Russia. Plus the following; if we see that Europe or, which is even more important, the USA toughens its monetary policy, the ruble will find itself under pressure. Therefore, I don't think that the Russian national currency will become seriously strengthened in the course of the year. At the same time, this is not bad because if the ruble is not very strong, this serves as a comfortable environment for the Russian exporters".
Greece plans to adopt shortly enough tough and, judging by the facts, unpopular measures, which might prove helpful in finding a way out of its financial collapse. And the U.S. Central Bank, for the first time since 2006, has raised the discount rate. Should all the other rates go up too, investors, most likely, will start transferring their accounts into the dollars.
Analysts find it difficult to foretell at the moment where another wave of the financial storm will come from and where the investors' money will flow to. Some experts believe that the world is on the threshold of changing the configuration of the currency market and that the dollar will no more be used as a universal standard. Those who support this version say that in future the market, with a greater degree of certainty and willingness, will start orientating itself at several currencies and that , probably, these will be the monetary units of the BRIC countries.
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