There has been an increase in seismological activity in the world in the last one hundred years, says Gennady Sobolev, head of the seismology section in the Schmidt Institute of Earth Physics:
"There is always a sporadic activity on the earth but normalcy is usually quickly restored. In the past, an earthquake measuring 8 points on the Richter Scale caused little damage, but now such a quake leads to extensive destruction and a high death toll", said Sobolev.
Earthquake has been and remains nature's enigma, which is beyond man's comprehension. The highly destructive quakes in Haiti and Chiule have confirmed the imperfection of existing methods of predicting a possible shift of the earth's crust, said Sobolev:
"Powerful quake occurs in Haiti once in 500 years, but nobody can recall when the last devastating one happened there. There is no trained seismologist in Haiti, and there is no monitoring service there either. The country is in no position to forecast the approach of an earth tremor. There is a claim that the US know about the approach of a quake to Haiti, but withheld the information. But Americans have never correctly predicted a single earthquake that is about to hit America", said Sobolev.
He asserted that Seismologists can correctly forecast on average, a quake that will happen in five years' time, and predict by 50 per cent to 70 per cent the probability of an earthquake occurring. Such a prediction allows for the taking of steps to minimize damage and to help the population prepare for the misfortune. From now to 2013, a quake may happen in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatski in the Russian Far East, and between 2013 and 2036, along the border between Chechnya and Dagestan, said Sobolev.
The monitoring of the signs of a possible earthquake, like the oozing of gas, magnet and electricity from the underground have been going on for a long time in the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatski region. We are hoping that we will be able to make a short- duration forecast of the approach of a quake. All the essential services, including the Emergency Situations Ministry, as well as schools and other public buildings have been alerted.
Seismological data of the earth are a well-guarded secret, to prevent the spreading of panic by unverified information about imminent earthquake, said Sobolev.
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