A series of new military hardware tests by Iran, including missile units, has given cause for reconsidering the seemingly forgotten possibility of the republic’s conflict with the West. Among other things, experts from across the globe resumed arguing whether a US or Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities is likely to happen.
Needless to say, the nuclear power plant in Busher cannot even theoretically get onto the target list - this is a widely accepted fact. Even the most uncompromising critics recognize the station’s purely peaceful nature, especially given the full control of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Given quite a number of other facilities the West considers suspicious, the question arises as to whether there is a possibility of an air strike on them.
Such a threat is minimal, if exists at all, according to Moscow-based political analyst Konstantin Markov. He said there is a range of both biased and unbiased factors preventing such a strike.
"As for objective factors, we should turn our attention to the reasons that made George Bush Jr. renounce the idea of using force against the followers of Khomeini. American political and military leaders are conscious that in the case of an attack, US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan will become the first targets for a potential retaliation strike. Furthermore, Iranians will be most probably supported by much of the Iraqi Shia community, which has so far been fairly loyal to the presence of American soldiers. So eventually, the Pentagon will have to re-deploy the troops it recently withdrew from Iraq, and this runs counter to the White House’s plans."
As for Israel, Netanyahu’s Cabinet has been repeatedly reported to be considering possible air strikes on nuclear sites in Esfahan and Natanz. Technically, Israel has such a potential, Konstantin Markov says.
"There is a variety of factors, preventing Israel from implementing its plans and consequently minimizing the risks of a war. I will mention only one of them. Any Israeli attack will cause the collapse of the pro-American Arab coalition in the Middle East - something that the US will never tolerate. Even now America is bringing unprecedented pressure on its strategic ally to constrain Israel’s efforts against Iran."
Does it all mean that a military conflict is completely ruled out? Never say never, especially when politics is concerned, says Konstantin Markov, adding that any American or Israeli bomb attacks on Iran are unlikely to occur in the foreseeable future.
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