Are Russians inclined to autocracy?

The 7th meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club opened on the 1st of September onboard the Kronstadt cruise ship in northwestern Russia’s Valdai area. Prominent experts on Russia from 15 European countries, the United States and Asia arrived to attend the week-long event.

The annual Valdai Club aims to create an international expert forum where key international Russia specialists can receive reliable information about Russia’s growth and development from leading members of the Russian elite.

This year's discussions, headlined "Russia: History and Future Development," began with a session where opinions clashed on whether Russia’s future is historically predetermined by a number of complex factors, including the strong tradition of respect for the absolute rule as the only means of dealing with the state's strategic tasks. Some of them argued that Russian people tend to show a so-called "historical fatalism," or unwillingness to press for changes, believing that "it would only get worse."

Others opinions had it that Russian people "are for democracy, but reject anarchy."

However, most experts agreed that though authoritarian moods are traditionally rooted in the Russian society, the country stands a chance of installing real democracy.

Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and St. Petersburg Governor Valentina Matviyenko are also expected to attend the event. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will join the forum on its final day.

Eugene Nikitenko has interviewed Richard Pipes, professor of History at Harvard University and a former deputy director of the University’s Centre for Russian Studies. The invterview was recorded over the telephone.

Nikitenko: Richard, can you tell me about your presentation at the Valdai Discussion Club today?

Pipes: Yes, well, I talked about the historic reasons for Russian predilection for autocracy. And I said there were several reasons. One is the enormity of the territory, and it is generally accepted by political theorists that such a large territory as Russia that was the empire has to be ruled autocratically and not democratically. Only small countries can be ruled democratically.

And that’s roughly the summary of my paper.

Nikitenko: And Richard, what do you expect from other presenters at the conference?

Pipes: Well, I don’t know if I expect anything, this is my first visit to Valdai, but I am surprised by the amount of criticism of the existing regime in Russia. The Russian participants are particularly critical of Putin and Medvedev. That’s very wholesome, you know, because in Russian tradition it is defending the regime, and they are not defending it any.

Nikitenko: And do you think this may help to raise the opposition in the democratic style?

Pipes: Yes and no. It will of course because I think that criticism of government is part of democracy. But I’m afraid they’re only intellectuals, and there’s big difference in Russia between intelligentsia and the masses. The masses – again I’d just quote opinion polls – overwhelmingly want the system, they approve of it and they don’t want it changed. So it’s the question if intelligentsia can persuade the masses that things should change. I’m very encouraged by young people, I think that the Russian youth is very different from the older generation, so that’s where our hopes lie.

Nikitenko: How soon do you think we can have some roots of democracy?

Pipes: Oh, it would take decades I think, because political culture changes are very slow. They don’t come overnight, so you can change government regimes, institutions, but mentality is very slow to change. So I don’t know how to predict, but I wouldn’t be surprised about, say, 20 or more years for a real change here in the attitude of public opinion.

Nikitenko: How long have you been following Russian events?

Pipes: I started learning Russian in the U.S. Air Force in 1943, and I came to Harvard to study Russia in 1946, a very long time ago. 64 years I’ve been studying Russia. And my first trip here, my first visit here was in 1957.

Nikitenko: You arrived in St. Petersburg yesterday. Did you have time to look around?

Pipes: No, really, I was very sleepy, because I did the 17-hour trip from the United States. I did go to Невский проспект, and I walked around for half an hour. You know, I’ve been here many times, I come to Russia almost every year, so the changes I see are gradual, not dramatic.

Nikitenko: Has there been academic interest over this conference in the United States?

Pipes: I think this is a different conference. The impression was that the other conferences were essentially. People were sympathetic to the Putin and Medvedev regime, and this is different, because they brought in a number of critics, at least from the United States and from Poland, and so on. So this may be a very different conference from the previous ones.

Nikitenko: And are you a friend of Russia?

Pipes: I am a friend of Russia, of course. I wouldn’t have spent my entire life studying Russia if I didn’t like it.