Libya, Syria and now Lebanon?

In light of this, the Milliyet points out a high probability of an armed conflict in Lebanon in the near future. Speaking of preconditions for the ouster of the regime there is irrelevant, the newspaper says, adding that the main problem in Lebanon is that the country’s conflicting parties are endorsed and supported by outside forces.

Many in Lebanon refer to the ‘Syrian trace’ when mentioning an array of arsons, abductions and protest rallies that have taken place in their country in the past. They were echoed by former Information Minister Michel Salaha who had earlier collaborated with the government of Bashar Assad. After his arrest, Salaha claimed that Damascus had allegedly nourished plans to draw Lebanon into chaos by notably sending a host of Syrian security agents there.

Moscow-based political analyst Stanislav Tarasov says, in turn, that Salaha’s allegations about Syria’s role in the Lebanese conflict holds no water. Pointing the finger at the West is also irrelevant, Tarasov says and elaborates.

"There is a factor of the third forces," Tarasov says, referring to radical Islam-related forces ready to capitalize on a standoff between the West and the Syrian regime in order to fulfill their own scenario, aimed at toppling the secular power in Lebanon. "There is a certain radical Muslim force which is keen to seize power in Lebanon, something which might be the case with Syria. In Egypt, this scenario has already been implemented."

Another Moscow-based political analyst, Alexander Filonik, says that the latest events in Syria could not but affect Lebanon, where many remain at odds over the Syrian crisis.

"In Lebanon, there are both supporters and opponents of the existing regime," Filonik says, pointing to the ongoing strife inside Lebanese society that reflects the current situation in Syria. "In this vein, I’m not surprised about the latest developments in Lebanon," Filonik adds, mentioning those poised to destabilize and destroy Syria. "They are interested in upsetting a balance that has been in place in Syria for decades. I think that these interests are dictated by those of US companies," Filonik says, singling out huge liquid hydrocarbon reserves that have allegedly been discovered in Lebanon. "Of course," he concludes, "this information is yet to be officially confirmed, but we all get used to the situation when many turbulent events or revolutions have an oil smell, so to speak."