Today the focus will be on:
Summing up the results of the G-20 Summit is Seoul
The US Afghanistan pullout
SVR traitor who burned Anna Kuschenko revealed
Iraq forms a new government
Most Russians like America
Welcome to this edition of In Focus, I am John Robles, and I am Elena Krylova. Today’s focus will be on the summary of the G-20 summit. The US Afghanistan pullout. SVR traitor who burned Anna Kuschenko revealed. Iraq forms a new government. Most Russians like America.
Leadership Summit "Big Twenty" in Seoul has come to an end. President of South Korea Lee Myung-bak stated that countries achieved progress during the negotiations, but did not disclose details of the final agreement, which should specify decisions taken on the monetary, financial and other problems.
Ending currency wars, the competitive devaluation of national currencies, has become the focal point of the G20 summit. The G-20 leaders have pledged to ensure further efforts to attain economic stability. They have signed a number of documents, such as a framework agreement to secure sustainable and balanced economic growth. The Seoul plan of action, documents on reforming international financial organizations, including the International Monetary Fund, were signed along with some others.
The summit approved South Korea’s proposal for setting up a global financial security network. This should help to reach compromise on controversies, including the one on currency regulation. Trade balances and currency exchange rates have emerged as top issue at the Summit. Especially in the light of recent Fed monetary move to inject billions of dollars into the US economy – many countries, including Brazil, Germany and Russia expressed their concerns.
U.S. President Barack Obama defended the Fed initiative by saying that the most important contribution the United States can make towards ensuring global stability is to boost the economic recovery at home by creating jobs and raising incomes. However, the summit has condemned in its final document the artificial devaluation of national currencies. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said the threat of the currency wars diminished after the summit.
The views of the summit participants are divided on the issue of trade imbalance in the relationship of the importing countries with fiscal deficits, such as the USA, and the surplus of exporting countries such as China and Germany.
As a result the communiqué calls for general measures. It specifies the establishment of guidelines for measuring imbalances in the global economy. The guidelines will suggest that the exchange rate movements should be determined by the market rather than external interventions.
Let’s move on.
President Barack Obama has been warned by an independent task force about the soaring cost of the Afghanistan war and that a narrow military mission would be advised if a December review finds the current strategy is not working.
Dan Markey, a South Asia analyst at the council who was project director for the report, said the findings were a "sober reflection of a Washington consensus that is increasingly skeptical and concerned" about the war.
We have an expert opinion from Vladimir Sotnikov, who is Senior Fellow at International Security Center of the Institute of Near and Far East Studies in the Russian Academy of Sciences.
The tendency is clearly towards reducing active military forces in Afghanistan and to make closer the day of final withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan. However, locals themselves are not strong enough to fight Taliban movement, so without US troops around there can be no decisive victory over Taliban. Americans are looking towards cutting the cost, not the force of Afghan operation.
The current strategy calls for U.S.-led forces, including nearly 100,000 American troops, to disrupt al Qaeda and its Taliban allies while training the Afghan military and police to be responsible for the security of the country when US Forces pull out. Administration officials have begun to downplay Obama's July 2011 deadline for beginning to hand over security to Afghan forces and withdraw U.S. troops as conditions merit. The mood of the American people will eventually lead to a substantial reduction of its military presence in Afghanistan.
Will Afghanistan suffer the same fate as that of the communist leader Najibullah 18 years ago, when the regime fell due to the cessation of logistical support from Moscow? They were unsuccessful in reshaping their image in such a way as to offer to Islamic extremists and international terrorists an alliance against the United States. Karzai came to power through the direct intervention of the US and allies, so will he stay in power without direct external intervention?
If Karzai or his successors fail it will be a complete and utter loss for the United States. One must remember that the war in Afghanistan was started for the purported purpose of eradicating international terrorism which was a threat to the United States. Although Taliban is associated with AL-Qaeda, they are not one and the same, Taliban is more local, whereas Al-Qaeda operates on the international basis.
Recently, Western countries finally figured out that there is no military solution to the conflict in that country. New concept was coined by President Obama, aimed at forming a coalition government. Naturally, the essential condition for forming such a government would be disengagement between the Taliban and international terrorists. Will the Taliban or their separate groups take such a drastic step is to be seen.
Political observer Armen Ogonasyan believes that the main task of the entire operation is to stop the threat of terrorist attacks launched from Afghanistan against the USA and other regions of the world, and the USA has not been able to accomplish this. For all intents and purposes this will mean a complete failure in Afghanistan.
Let’s move on to our next topic…..
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, responding to questions from reporters Friday in Seoul, commented on the July arrest of a network of Russian spies in the U.S. The President's words on this subject can be interpreted as an indirect recognition of the authenticity of the story about the traitor that burned the agents in the US and about which the Kommersant newspaper published a story. Earlier, official and unofficial sources in the SVR refuted the facts in the story and tried to present the whole thing as the fantasy of journalists.
President Medvedev said he was familiar with the story, but could not comment on any further action. The Kommersant article said that the Russian spy network in the U.S. failed because of the treachery of a certain Colonel Shcherbakov, who has long served as the SVR Chief of department "S".
Immediately after the expulsion of the 10 Russian agents, the foreign media wrote about them as lay people, who did not perform any tasks and who had not been activated and that the FBI had not had any problems exposing them. At the same time, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, right after the arrival of the spies in Moscow, stressed that the failure of Russian agents was the fault of a traitor. Vladimir Putin said he knew the names of the traitors, and these people always end up badly – either alcohol or drug abuse will eventually kill them.
On the eve the SVR categorically denied the story, described by the Kommersant, because it has too many inaccuracies and absurdities. Professionals agree that even if a portion of the data contained in the material is true, in general, it is a fictional story, and no Colonel Shcherbakov, or someone like him with a different name exists. However, a senior official in the Russian intelligence community said that the publication about the traitor contains more fiction than fact, but it does not mean that the Counterintelligence service does not have any problems.
According to the source, this failure has demonstrated that major changes are needed in the structure of Russian intelligence, especially changes in personnel management and strengthening of the Counterintelligence office.
"Personnel management and ensuring the work of counter-intelligence - are key issues in the effectiveness of Russian intelligence in the future. The internal investigation being carried out in SVR should establish the true reasons behind the recruitment of one of the SVR’s leading staff by the U.S. intelligence services. It is equally important to calculate the period in which the recruitment was carried out"- said the source. The source also suggested that the betrayal scandal should not destroy the entire Russian spy network that operates in the U.S.
Eight months of political deadlock was ended in Iraq on Thursday, as Shi'ite Muslim Nuri al-Maliki was reappointed as the Prime Minister of Iraq. Iraqi parliament met on Wednesday, deciding on a new power-sharing deal that united conflicting Shi’ites, Sunnis and Kurds. Jalal Talabani was also reinstated as President, while Sunni Osama al-Nujaifi was brought back to power as the Speaker of Parliament. Mr. Al-Maliki has 30 days to form the new cabinet.
Marking the fragility of the new Iraqi government, 57 of the Sunni lawmakers headed by the Speaker Ayad Allawi walked out in outrage prior to the presidential vote. The Sunni coalition expressed their mistrust in Mr. al-Maliki’s ability to unite the two national alliances.
And we have an expert. Vladimir Sotnikov, a Senior Fellow at the International Security Center, Institute of Near and Far East Studies, at the Russian Academy of Sciences:This will probably strengthen Iraqi government, especially if they are ready to fight terrorists and extremists. This is actually a sign of stabilization in the country.
Wednesday was only the second time that the Iraqi parliament was assembled since the inconclusive results of the March 7 election that established Kurdish Mr. Talabani as president and Sunni Osama al-Nujaifi as speaker for the first time. The November election re-instated the Shia-Kurdish coalition that has been in power since 2005, but gives Sunnis more control. However, some Sunnis argue that the distribution of power is still unequal. Some are also apprehensive that Mr. al-Maliki is too heavily influenced by Iran, Iraq’s former enemy.
US government heavily supported Sunni’s bigger stake in the current power structure, as to prevent the sectarian wars that plagued Iraq since the American invasion in 2003. Iraqiya Ayad Allawi was appointed as the head of the newly created council of strategic policies, which will be able to veto government policies with a 80 percent majority. It is unclear just how much power such council will have, considering the disunity of the Iraqi government and difficulty at achieving consensus.
Barack Obama described the formation of the coalition government as a positive tendency, showing that Iraq is moving towards unity rather than sectarian wars and terror. Mr. Obama also pledged continued support for the Iraqi democracy. There are currently 50’000 US troops in Iraq, with plans for a complete withdrawal by the end of 2011. Although there has been a significant decrease in violence following the height of insurgency in 2006 and 2007, incidents of killings and terrorism occur on a daily basis. The unstable political situation in Iraq is a major obstacle to rebuilding the Iraqi Oil industry, heavily sanctioned during the regime of Saddam Hussein.
Let’s move to our next topic.
The Levada center survey has shown that most Russians don’t have anything against America. More than a half of participants claimed their attitude was mostly good. The survey covered 1600 people from 130 towns and villages, 45 regions. Our expert Denis Volkov, a sociologist at the Levada center, is to comment on the situation. He says that these people who express positive view of America are mostly young people, with higher education, living in Moscow. They communicate more with foreigners and are thus more open to understanding foreign culture.
Every third Russian citizen is convinced that the ratification of START treaty is equally beneficial both for Russia and the US. About one quarter believes that the treaty will serve all mankind.
And with this we end this edition of In Focus. Thank you for listening, and we’ll join you again tomorrow at the same time.
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