Ekaterina Kudashkina: Well, as Christmas time is approaching, I suggest that this time we could do with a touch of magic to our program. Frogs turning into princes – remember.  Well, political transformations are no less fascinating, I promise. So today we’ll be see a young and progressive leader of the youngest European democracy turning into a criminal and a mafia boss, a long-legged blonde in a shirt skirt from a remote town in the North Caucasus turning into a spy make-belief, and an unbending communist-style dictator turning into one of the most successful political leaders in the whole of Europe. Mystified?

Sergei Strokan: Well, Katya…

Ekaterina Kudashkina: And now we are moving to our first heading – Beyond the Headlines. This time I suggest we could talk of Kosovo. At the start I’d believed the Kosovo general election, the first after the country declared its independence, would be a good enough reason to look at what’s going on at that corner of the Balkans. All the more so, that Kosovo elections coincided with 15-th anniversary of Dayton agreement, which in its turn in some way can be seen as legacy of Richard Holbrooke, who died this Monday and who had brokered the deal. But then, in the middle of the week, as soon as the first preliminary results of the voting arrived, attributing the victory to the incumbent prime-minister Hashim Thaci by the way, the Council of Europe exploded a true information bomb.

They presented a draft report compiled by Swiss Senator Dick Marty, who is also the rapporteur for the Council of Europe's committee on legal affairs and human rights. Marty claims that Prime Minister Hashim Thaci had headed a mafia-style organized crime ring in the late 1990s that engaged in assassinations, beatings, organ trafficking and other crimes.

Sergei Strokan: Interesting! Are there any details?

Ekaterina Kudashkina: Well, Sergei, you know, the draft hasn’t been published yet, but the wires ran some of its excerpts. And they are frightening! For instance, it says that just a decade ago Kosovo Albanian guerrillas loyal to Hashim Thaci, collected the organs from some captives, mainly Serbs, they killed for that purpose. The report says almost 500 people disappeared in Kosovo after NATO troops arrived in 1999. About 100 of them were Albanians and close to 400 non-Albanians, most of them Serbs.

Mira Salganik: Well, my guess is that the number of the disappeared at that time is much bigger. And they are both Serbians and Albanians.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: Yes, Mira, no doubt. But Dick Marty is referring to a very special case of human disappearances. The captives, he says, were killed, usually by a gunshot to the head, before being operated on to remove one or more of their organs.

Sergei Strokan: But that requires a whole medical facility with hi-tech modern medical equipment.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: And here’s another excerpt to you. In the months directly after the declared end of the Kosovo conflict in June 1999, the draft says, members and affiliates of the Kosovo Liberation Army, the KLA, purportedly delivered scores of persons they had abducted into secret detention on Albanian territory.

Presumably, they brought their prisoners to some safe locations near the Kosovo border.   

One of these places, the Fushe-Kruje, is described in the report as a state-of-the-art reception centre for the organized crime of organ trafficking.

“It was styled as a makeshift operating clinic, and it was the site at which some of the captives held by KLA members and affiliates had their kidneys removed against their will," Marty's report said.

Mira Salganik: But, Katya, doesn’t it seem strange to you that the Council of Europe would wake up to the problem only now, more than two years after Kosovo declared its independence, which was, by the way, done with the full support from the EU?

Sergei Strokan: Mira, just to make things more clear: the Kosovo project was supported mostly by the US Administration, the team of President Bush, to be more precise. And the Europeans only supported their ally.

Mira Salganik: Well, that doesn’t change much. The question is still there.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: Oh, Mira, but it wasn’t the team of Dick Marty who initiated the investigation. It was Carla Del Ponte, former chief war crimes prosecutor at The Hague Tribunal. She mentioned it in her memoirs published in April 2008. And she said she had been prevented from properly investigating alleged atrocities by the KLA.

Sergei Strokan: That’s amazing!

Ekaterina Kudashkina: Well, Sergei, to me the whole of the Kosovo independence project is amazing!

Sergei Strokan: Why, Katya! Isn’t it only natural that the Albanian majority which amounts to some 90% of the Kosovo population, with a centuries-long history of friction with the local Serb community, would wish to live separately from the rest of Serbia?

Ekaterina Kudashkina: Well, as we all know, de facto Belgrade lost all control of the province in 1999 after NATO air operation in 1999. And, as far as I remember Kosovo was then offered several solutions, including full autonomy within Serbia, but they rejected it altogether. And Kosovo of the last decade or so was already known to be a country with an extremely poor criminal record. On the eve of its self-proclaimed independence in February 2008 many experts voiced their doubts. They claimed Kosovo was a centre of the international organized crime, it was a centre of drug trafficking, it was seen as a stronghold of some of the Islamist movements and so on and so forth. 

Sergei Strokan: That’s right, why?

Ekaterina Kudashkina: Well, but then no-one seemed to have heard their concerns. In fact, Mr. Thaci was the only one of the whole of the Kosovo political establishment – if any - to have been directly involved in independence negotiations with UN, EU and US. Well, and now – hey presto! The leader of a country, which, mind you, is already recognized by some 69 states across the world, and is situated at the heart of Europe, turns out to be a former mafia boss!  And that’s what you’d call successful democratic experience. Congratulations!

Sergei Strokan: Well, Katya, I hate to disappoint you even further, but there’s even more to it, I’m afraid. I suppose you’ve heard of the Greater Albania project. Something the Albanians have been dreaming of for more than a century. So, experts believe that if  Serbia yields to the immense pressure and recognizes Kosovo’s independence, the idea of the Greater Albania would no longer be a dream. It would start to materialize. There are territories where a majority of population is Albanian, in Macedonia, in Montenegro, in Serbia and even in Greece. And they shall certainly try to make their dream come true, but first they would try to join Kosovo.

Mira Salganik: Well, Sergei, I’m not sure this is something Europe would be happy to see. Albania, too, is a poor country with high unemployment and almost no economy and - a no better criminal record than Kosovo. Remember, when George Bush was visiting Albania, his golden watch was stolen right from his wrist when he was addressing crowds in Tirana?

Ekaterina Kudashkina: So, Mira, and perhaps that’s something that the EU authorities have finally come to realize. And I can tell you that people in the rest of the Balkans are thoroughly alarmed at the prospect of having a Greater Albania as their big neighbor.  Just listen to what Dr. John Nomikos, the Director of the Athens-based Research Institute for European and American Studies has been telling me.

 John Nomikos: The only thing is what they definitely want to share with you in Kosovo is that the situation there regarding the organized crime and human trafficking is extremely high. Kosovo and its government do not really control this increase, along with money laundering. The point is what the government does there in order to control the connection between organized crime and terrorism. And, of course, another thing you really want to know is what the situation with Islamic radicalism in the Balkans is. This is a national security threat, because many illegal immigrants coming from Asia or North African countries via Turkey to Greece and then to Kosovo and Bulgaria, are a sort of a sleeping shield for terrorist activities in the long term.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: Professor, I was trying to address the same question to many European scholars. My question is why Europe wants such a sleeping cell just at its southern borders? Why doesn’t it oppose the Kosovo project?

John Nomikos: This is a question that they raised the other day - do they have any kind of security and what do they want - illegal immigrants or organized crime moving from one country to another? There is no way to stop it unilaterally. Greece cannot stop the flow of illegal immigrants alone, it needs assistance not only from the EU - because Bulgaria and Romania are members of the EU - but they also need to understand the national security threat coming from illegal immigrants, just as from the Islamic shield. This threat is the same for everyone. Why do not Greece, Bulgaria, Romania and other nations cooperate? They need it. For some reason, I don’t know they don’t realize that the biggest threat is the Islamic network in the Balkans.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: If Kosovo’s independence is eventually recognized does it mean that a greater Albania will be formed?

John Nomikos: Relations between Albania and Kosovo are very strong. Greater Albania with its Islamic population is going to be a big threat to every Balkan state, especially Serbia. The Balkan state should cooperate and try to see that turkey is manipulating the Muslim minorities in order to destabilize the states and to take advantage of the situation. Turkey’s involvement, of course under cover, is rather strong especially in Kosovo, Albania, as well as Muslim minorities in Bulgaria and Greece.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: Do I get you right that the whole situation is developing towards destabilizing?

John Nomikos: Of course, as long as illegal immigration is uncontrollable. And it is uncontrollable. And the sleeping shield is covering all of the Balkans, especially Kosovo, Albania and Bulgaria. Sooner or later, the whole situation is going to be like a volcano. To my view, if we don’t have some kind of reasonable security cooperation, this kind of incidents is going to increase, not decrease.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: Professor, thank you very much.

Sergei Strokan: And that’s a grim scenario Dr. Nomikos has been painting. But - what is the Council of Europe planning to do about the Marty’s draft?

Ekaterina Kudashkina: Well, Sergei, the draft is supposed to be adopted by the Committee on Legal Affairs of the Council's Parliamentary Assembly and it actually urges Kosovo's EU-run judiciary in Kosovo to probe the charges.

Mira Salganik: And if the probe confirms Marty’s team’s findings – that should spell trouble for Thaci.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: Well, I’d love to bring you an almost insider’s opinion. Our second guest is a well-known Serbian journalist Borislav Korkodelovic.

What is actually the Serbian reaction to the outcome of Kosovo elections?

Borislav Korkodelovic: I can’t say it, because I am in Africa right now, but I can tell you about the stand of the Serbian authorities and a substantial number of Serbs, particularly in the northern part of the province. The stand was that the Serbs don’t have anything to do with the early elections, first of all because the elections were not organized in compliance with the standards and procedures of the international community. That is one factor; another factor is that the majority of the province’s Serbs don’t feel any better management of the electoral process. I don’t know what the turnout among the Serbs was, but definitely, in the northern part, which is more or less without a presence of any provisional institutions from Pristine, the turnout was not expected to be larger than 5 percent. I think it was even less. In southern Kosovo, turnout figures were probably larger, because there was a sort of a pre-election campaign organized by some Serbian parties. I think the authorities in Belgrade realized that it would be better for the Serbs to decide for themselves, whether it is good or bad to vote.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: I was also told that the authorities in Belgrade are under intense pressure to recognize the independence of Kosovo.

Borislav Korkodelovic: They’ve always been over the last two and a half years. It is not news. If there would be such a decision among their leadership, we will have to change the constitution first of all. So, maybe there are some not very loud voices on the Serbian political scene and there is definitely pressure from the main western countries, but I don’t expect this to happen at all.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: I’ve been told that otherwise, that would open the way to the creation of larger and greater Albania.

Borislav Korkodelovic: I am afraid this is a process, which Europe will be confronted with - first the countries of the western Balkans and then the European Union and the rest of the continent. One of the quite professional American diplomats Christopher Hill, who used to be one of the late Ambassador Holbrooke’s chief negotiators at international conferences on Kosovo, said that in the 20th century we have been dealing with the question of great Serbia, but in the 21st century we will deal with the question of greater Albania. He said it 11 years ago. Things are moving in that direction. In northern Greece, for example, almost all of western Macedonia is inhabited by Albanians and they organized a sort of an armed rebellion in 2001. There are 2 out of 3 municipalities on the administrative border between Kosovo and Serbia, inner Serbia, largely inhabited by Albanians. They also have a substantial Albanian minority in Montenegro. Two months ago, there was a meeting in Tirana - the capital of Albania - where the main message was that there are some natural borders of Albania and for Albanians, and they should try to achieve that goal, which was formulated in the late 19th century after the Berlin Conference in 1878.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: Thank you very much.

And now we go get to our second heading - Between the Lines. This time I suggest we could look at a story written for The Independent newspaper by one of the well-known British journalists – Christina Patterson. The story, or to be more precise, an opinion piece, is entitled ‘Lessons from a Russian blonde’. But make no mistake - it is mostly about the lessons, than the blonde. And we are going to talk about both. 

 And here I invite you to appreciate the style of the story. Sorry for the long quote, but I don’t think you’d mind it in the long run.

“It's possible, I suppose, that, a 25-year old leggy Russian blonde, who may or may not be a spy, and who enjoys being photographed in bikinis and grass skirts, was the best qualified candidate for the post of researcher to the Lib Dem MP for Portsmouth South. It's possible that the MP in question, who looks like a hobbit who's been given those hormones that prolong the lives of mice, and whose surprisingly successful seduction techniques apparently include the regular mailing (to adult women, though a lot younger than him, obviously) of teddy bears, advertised the post repeatedly, but failed to find anyone to fit the bill”.

Mira Salganik: Lovely!

Sergei Strokan: And who’s the hobbit?

Mira Salganik: Oh, Sergei, Christina is careful not to mention the names, but I suppose he’s a 64-year-old Mike Hancock, who is a member of the Commons' defense select committee and has naval interests in his Portsmouth South constituency. Besides, Mr. Hancock seems to have a reputation for a weakness for fair sex.

Sergei Strokan: Which means that the blonde in question would be Ekaterina Zatuliveter, right?

Ekaterina Kudashkina: That’s right – yet another Russian beauty suspected of spying. In fact the MI-5 investigators uncovered her in the very heart of the UK policy making.

In fact Christina told me she used the spy episode simply as a kick-off to what she had to say about nepotism. But the way she described the whole of the detective story is really fascinating.

And here’s another delightful piece for you.

“It's possible that he then felt obliged to take a research trip to Moscow, to see if a population of 142 million could succeed where a population of 60 million had failed. And it's possible that he then felt a bit overwhelmed by the enormity of the task, and so when the 25-year-old blonde, presented herself, and said she would just love to be a researcher to a British MP, he said that he was hoping to find someone a bit more his own age, and a bit more in his league in the looks department, but that he supposed he could make an exception on this occasion, and she would do”.

Sergei Strokan: Katya, but I suppose you promised there would be transformations?

Ekaterina Kudashkina: Well, “The leggy blonde comes from somewhere called Mineralnye Vody”, Christina wrote and then – there’s the first one for you. A girl from a town, a beautiful, but distant location in Northern Caucasus, gets to the British Parliament as an aide to a British MP.

Sergei Strokan: OK, they meet, she gets an interesting job but I take it, the sexy beauty is not charged with spying?

Mira Salganik: She is awaiting deportation and she’s been kept in Yarl Wood immigration removal centre. It seems MI-5 started investigating her simply because she had access to sensitive documents. Moreover, according to a source in the British security, MI-5 got activated after the Russian spy-net scandal in the USA. So, they started to check whether there are spy nets in England.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: But then Hancock, who denied she was anything of the sort, insisted that Miss Zatuliveter had been investigated by MI-5 before getting the job.

Sergei Strokan: But it was also understood that MI5 had spent some time trying to identify a possible handler in order to amass evidence to bring a case against her. But anyway, where’re the lessons?

Ekaterina Kudashkina: Well, like I said, Patterson’s piece focuses on the issue of nepotism, not the ‘long-legged blonde”. However, the lesson taught by the blonde is that people often get hired not for their merits, but for their belonging to a small group of the chosen ones. She goes on to quote a report published by The Social Market Foundation, saying that "Word-of-mouth recruitment is more common than formal recruitment methods". And it’s also quicker, cheaper and much more fun.

Sergei Strokan: But has it got anything to do with the Zatuliveter story?

Ekaterina Kudashkina: Well, it’s just a good illustration of what the report says. And besides, do you think this could also make life easier for true spies?

Sergei Strokan: Well, were Mr.Hancock’s researcher a bespectacled middle-aged lady wearing longer skirts and sensible shoes, would there have been all this media hue and cry over – and now I am quoting The Telegraph: “Using her position to try to gain sensitive material from the Government, after questions were tabled from Mr. Hancock’s office requesting an inventory of Britain’s nuclear arsenal and the location of its international submarine bases.“

Mira Salganik: Anyway, the inevitable happened: the story of a Russian sex-bomb penetrating Britain’s nuclear arsenal has been taken up by media. Obviously, the media can’t afford to waste time – what if the girl proves to be innocent? Of course, as The Telegraph writes: “What’s a spy thriller without a photogenic vixen who likes to wear short skirts thus keeping local politicians and officers appropriately beguiled as she supposedly perpetrated crimes against the state?”

Sergei Strokan: Oh, what a style.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: And all the papers seem to be literally amused by her Playboy looks.

Sergei Strokan: Well, and there’s also something between these lines. Komsomolskaya Pravda suggests that the sex-bomb- spy story is a part of the ongoing mud-slinging campaign against Russia, saying: “This all looks like petty revenge on Russia for the football”. Right now the girl is going to appeal against the deportation order that was thought to have been the culmination of an investigation into her background and connections.

Mira Salganik: Well, there’s something else I’d like to say - if a blond whose best merits are long legs and good connections in Russia and in England, can get to a position that gives her access to sensitive documents, the fault rests with  the bodies that are supposed to prevent it – be it MI-5 or whatever else!

Ekaterina Kudashkina: And with the system when people tend to hire a friend’s friend with a total disregard of whether the person is really fir for the job. And now I’m happy to introduce our guest – the author of the story Christina Patterson who is sharing with us her views on nepotism issue.

Christina Patterson: A very high percentage of people, who go into particularly the media and politics - the most influential areas of the British culture, went to private schools and to Oxford or Cambridge. So, it is not necessarily that their families knew these people before, but their educational and social wealth will be quite small. Probably, a lot of them knew each other at Oxford or Cambridge and quite lots of them knew each other at school, as with our current Conservative-Lib Dem Cabinet. What I would say is that it means that the 93 percent of the population that aren’t going to private schools are not getting to make the contribution that they could easily otherwise make and with no doubt be able to, if they were given this opportunity. But I think that everyone saw that things are changing in the other direction. The hope was that the society would become more meritocratic and that there would be wider access. In my view that is not going to happen while we continue to have private schools, because private schools scatter the whole system. Private schools have a role in our society that they simply don’t have in Scandinavia or much of the continent - Germany or France or Italy. Their elite, their media and politics aren’t’ run by people who went to private schools in the way that we have here I think. Somehow people like to think that everyone will have the possibility one day, if sending their children to private schools, even though it is completely crazy, because 93 percent of the population is not going to be the case. But there is a big gap between private school education and public schools or state schools. I mean I went to a state school as I wrote in the column, but a very-very high proportion of people, who go for example to Eton or Oxford, will be very successful in the media or politics or banking, whatever. But to get the best people means to have an open meritocratic process, no question.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: But the big question is how to organize it and how to make the appropriate changes.

Christina Patterson: Well, in the whole sway of the British life where you absolutely have to do things early in the public sector or in schools, you have to legally put an advert in a paper and then you will have to show it’s your candidate and you have very clear questions that you ask them. So, there is a kind of strange dichotomy between the public sector, where there are very strict rules about what you do and how you do it and what you’d call “good practice”, and the private sector, where people do exactly what they want.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: Christina, thank you very much indeed.

And now it’s time for us to move to our concluding heading The Man in the News. And this week it’s going to be Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belorussia, approaching presidential election scheduled for this weekend, the 19 of December.  At the age of 56 this man seems to be going through a major transformation of image, to say the least. This is his fourth presidential race which he’s bound to win. Yet, this time, the election campaign is quite different from the previous one. Then Mr. Lukashenko was strongly criticized for the lack of transparency and numerous faults in the voting process.

Opposition leaders who used to be described as “enemies of the people” have now been given a chance to address their electorate in TV shows. Mr. Lukashenko’s own rhetoric became softer and friendlier towards the west…

Sergei Strokan: Well, Katya, this change is obviously linked to cooling in Minsk relations with Moscow. So, Lukashenko is left with no other choice than to seek the support of the West. Therefore, he is badly in need of a face-lift to improve his image. As somebody put it, Europe’s last dictator changing into her Number 1 beau.

I agree, this election campaign is most unusual for Belorussia. But still the winner is known – it’s Lukashenko who is not going to weaken his grip on his country – not for love or money, not even for 3bln dollar aid promised by the EU in case of clean election.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: I suspect no leader of a country would give up his ruling position on his free will. And besides, there is hope the election’s going to be clean. Or cleaner that the previous.

Mira Salganik: And there’s another new point in Mr. Lukashenko’s electoral strategy. This time he described Russia as Belarus’ enemy. He obviously appointed Russia the scapegoat for all his failures. To quote another contender for presidency, economist Yaroslav Romanchuk of “Million Jobs” program:  “Lukashenko is primarily putting on Russia the responsibility for deteriorating economic situation in the country”. And one may well say that Russia is responsible for at least some of Lukashenko’s headaches.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: There is an old saying that a country’s geography is its destiny. Belarus, an ex-Soviet republic with a population of some 10 million, is squeezed between Russia and Poland. It has been close to Russia for a number of reasons – ethnic, linguistic, economic and political. There has been even a project to set up a Union State between the two countries. It has been   mostly a political project. 

Mira Salganik: Well, it nevertheless provided Belarus with some economic privileges. Recently I came across a stunning figure: the sum total of Russia’s donation to Belarus is $52bln!

I wonder, is this the reason why Mr. Lukashenko keeps warning Russian leaders that “it is in Russia’s strategic interests to hold on to Belorussia, her most reliable and important friend”?

Sergei Strokan: Belarus was getting Russian oil at “friendly prices” – at 36 percent discount to Russia's export duties.  Belarus exploited the gap by selling much of the oil at higher rates to Western Europe.

Mira Salganik: Now Mr. Lukashenko keeps repeating that it was “the choice of the evolutionary development” that made it possible for Belarus to avoid shock therapy, unite its people and grow into a strong and prosperous nation. What he does not mention is that all his achievements have been paid for from the Russian budget.  

Ekaterina Kudashkina: I think, you’re exaggerating. I suppose Lukashenko deserves credit for keeping the unemployment as low as 1%, for his sound social programs, to name a few. And besides, the country’s exporting not only natural gas it’s getting from Russia, but also machinery, equipment, chemicals, mineral products, textiles, food….

Mira Salganik: Anyway, the time came when Moscow said that friendship is friendship but no free lunches anymore.  The Union State project was substituted for the Customs Union.

So, Lukashenko presented a new concept of relations with the two major power-centers – Russia and the West. He once again accused Moscow of trying to exert pressure on Minsk and called for developing new relations with the EU and America.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: So, what is the latest on Mr. Lukashenko’s position regarding the Customs Union, is he still in it?

Sergei Strokan: Well, it looks like the Customs Union summit has put an end to the confrontation between Moscow and Minsk. Starting from the 1 of January, 2011 Moscow cancels all export duties on oil for Belarus while Minsk ratifies all documents for united economic space.  Though, some analysts insist it is simply a pre-election armistice.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: By the way, have you noticed that speaking of Russia, Mr. Lukashenko is always careful to differentiate between the Russian leadership and the people of Russia. 

The point is that you cannot tell Byelorussians that Russia is their enemy. It would mean political death for any of the local politicians including Lukashenko. Our nations have always been close.

Sergei Strokan: Yet, there were media wars not so long ago! Russian state TV would air   offensive films about Lukashenko   - calling him Godfather. And in return Belarusian media would hurl abuse at the Kremlin authorities. There were also trade wars, oil-price skirmishes. And then - the sudden armistice…

Mira Salganik: Some analysts believe that Moscow finally gave up whatever plans it had about Belorussian election. As for Lukashenko – he got the oil at more or less acceptable price. Pragmatic interests of both sides prevailed over ambitions. Hence - the armistice. Not the end of war.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: I’m not sure you’re right, Mira. Like you said, Lukashenko is a pragmatist. I don’t think he’s looking for more wars with Russia. I believe he just gave up whatever plans he had about closer ties with the Russian government. And he’s developing his Western connections instead. Well, that’s my vision. And now I suggest we could talk to Arkady Moshes, the director of the Russian Program at the International studies institute in Helsinki, Finland.

I have an impression that Mr. Lukashenko has uplifted his image to some extent. Do you share this stand?

Arkady Moshes: Mr. Lukashenko definitely changed his image for the better. And not only he changed his image, but he also changed the policy, so that the change of the image becomes the result of the actual changes in his political behavior. First of all, he now looks like a real champion of independence and sovereignty of his country and definitely not the one of post-Soviet reintegration. Secondly, he has already started some although very small and perhaps very cautious economic reforms. He has been able to intercept the slogans of the opposition as concerns the need for Belarus to interact and cooperate with Europe. So, the change is fairly significant.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: Let’s get into smaller details. How do you explain this change?

Arkady Moshes: This change is actually easy to explain. The first thing we need to take into account was the change in the behavior of Russia. Mr. Lukashenko was really scared that he could, sooner or later, lose economic subsidies from Russia, which he had been accustomed to receive. The oil wars, gas wars, protectionist measures vis-à-vis the Belarusian goods taken by Russia before finally convinced him that he would need some kind of foreign policy diversification. That’s number one factor. And the factor number two is the changes that are happening in the country. Within the two decades of independence, the population of Belarus has started to change - it now considers the country’s independence as a value. And even though that does not mean that this population would be interested to have a conflict with Russia, but neither is it interested to pay to Russia for good diplomatic relations in the form of, for example, transferring control over the Belarusian oil refineries or other economic assets to Russia. These are important changes.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: And in view of these changes, how would you forecast the outcome of the upcoming elections? I have no doubt that Mr. Lukashenko wins obviously. But don’t you think that perhaps, his situation vis-à-vis the opposition forces of the country would somehow change?

Arkady Moshes: He will definitely win the elections. We don’t know the results with which he will win or rather will be declared winner, because the count of votes is as non-transparent as before. I still think that the major change is to be expected in the sphere of foreign policy. Belarus will become more independent and will have even more maneuver in terms of foreign policy than before. But domestically, the political liberalization is under way. I mean if we look at this campaign, how liberal the central election commission was in registering the candidates and verifying the signatures, as well as in providing access to the state television for the opposition candidates, so that they could have a live debate. I mean the changes are already noticeable and very cautiously it can be not really predicted but perhaps hoped that the next parliamentary elections, which will take place in Belarus two years from now, will end up in the access of the opposition parties to the parliament. Liberalization is under way and at the same time since Mr. Lukashenko does not really consider the current opposition and its leaders to be very much of a threat to him and his position. He can afford to be more liberal than before.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: Which opposition party would you describe as the strongest?

Arkady Moshes: I would not really want to talk about parties in this situation, because as you may know, the Communists are not running, the Labor Party is not running - they don’t want to participate in the current “show”, as they put it. But there are groupings, there are groups of people and there are four front-runners: Mr. Neklyayev, a well-known Belarusian writer, who would be seen perhaps more as a moral authority than as an effective politician; Mr. Sannikov with his campaign for European Belarus; Mr. Romanchuk, who is a really well-known and very professional economist; and Mr. Mikhalevich, who, I would say, runs on a more national-democratic platform. These people have structures behind them, they have supporters, but it would be very difficult so far to define these groups with parties with a clear ideological or practical platform. But that doesn’t mean that these platforms will not appear in the future, if it is decided that the next parliamentary elections will take place on a party-list and not as a competition between individual candidates.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: Do you think that this election might turn out to be more transparent than the previous one?

Arkady Moshes: Well, yes and no. the campaign has been more transparent and definitely much more liberal and we already see that the name recognition of the opposition candidates (and consequently the support of the opposition candidates) is growing in the country. So, the rules of the game were perhaps more transparent a little bit already now, but the bastion is still there - it is the vote count. The opposition is practically not represented in local election commissions, which will be counting votes. That means that the election results will be lacking the final credibility, even if the outcome is eventually recognized both by the West and Russia, as well as the OSCE observes.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: The effort by Mr. Lukashenko is already there. Is it appreciated by the European organizations?

Arkady Moshes: I believe yes, because Mr. Lukashenko is definitely and handshake-worthy politician at the moment. In November, several groups of top-level EU visitors came to Minsk, including German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, and EU Commissioner for Enlargement Stefan Füle. All these people came to Minsk to discuss cooperation and financial assistance to the regime. Basically, they are speaking out soft conditionality, which looks like as follows: if there is no regress compared to how the situation looks now, the possibilities for cooperation between Belarus and the European Union will grow.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: I am getting an impression that Mr. Lukashenko, who was seen as a rigid autocratic leader of a small Central European country, now emerges, perhaps as one of the shrewdest politicians in Europe. Is that really so?

Arkady Moshes: Rigid is not an antonym for shrewd. He is a charismatic leader, who has been running his country for more than 16 years; he knows his nation and has fantastic political instincts in terms of domestic both and foreign policy. And the combination of these factors allows him in a way to gain new electorate and not just to benefit from keeping the old groups of supporters. I would say that time after time he faces a fairly serious pressure from the EU and Russia to actually win on both fronts. So, he is definitely one of the most successful politicians of present-day Europe, considering the tactical game. But, of course, the strategic challenges are still worsening the economic situation. The external debt, which seems small by international standards, is increasing very quickly and spiraling in a way. All these issues will have to be addressed. Lukashenko has been able to win every single battle that he was fighting. But whether he has been able to win a strategic war - that is what we still don’t know.

Ekaterina Kudashkina: Mr. Moshes, thank you very much.